Showing posts with label Futurology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Futurology. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Don't you think now is not that different from the past as you expected when you were a child? Futurology

This is not a serious thread, but just a light rant. All right, I have not contributed anything to the advancement of any technologies, so it is not that I am blaming others, but it is just that now is not the exiting future I was expecting in the 1980's.

If I could somehow show the current world to 1980's myself, 1980's myself would not be that surprised and probably understand most of the new things in a day or so without much astonishment. Far from the 2020's I saw in TV shows of 1980's. In short, everything other than computers got just slightly better, and even for computers, they just got faster so things that we already knew how to implement but could not have done so due to processing speed are now possible, but other than that, computers are not different from 1980's.

Cars look more or less the same. The do have some small GPS guidance device, but it is not that surprising or magical. There are not K.I.T.T. like cars or hovering cars. Most of them are still driven by humans and using petroleum. I have heard of self-driving cars, but I cannot imagine when a fully automatic cars (that you do not have to drive at all) will be of the price of current cars.

There are no human-like robots. No, Google Assistant does not seem to have a human-like A.I. I have a Google Home, and it feels to me that it just a very complicated and long if/else programming, than it actually understands me even at a 5-year old child-level. It does not understand or respond like a human. It says the same things over and over again; it does not understand even a simple question, if it is an unusual question that the engineers in Google did not expect. I have lowered my expectations and am using it mostly just for simple things like asking time/weather, setting timers.

Houses look the same. Refrigerators, microwave ovens, washing machines look the same. There are some "smart" ones with just basic Wi-Fi capability, but in my standard they are still dumb. And they are not even prevalent.

There are not so many diseases that were impossible to cure in the 1980's but now are curable. I mean, we still die from cancers, Dentistry is still using drills. We still cannot even eradicate simple viruses like herpes that hide inside our body.

Ray Kurzweil predicted a fundamentally different world in 2045 (27 years from now). I can hardly believe it. Yeah, he says acceleration of changes, but it feels more like an excuse. I kind of expect the year 2045 would not be that different from now, other than we have some faster/smaller computers.



Submitted January 16, 2018 at 05:34PM by evolution2015 http://ift.tt/2DbXlf7 Futurology

Friday, January 12, 2018

Boeing unveils new drone strong enough to lift a refrigerator Futurology

http://ift.tt/2FroMmw

Submitted January 12, 2018 at 08:54PM by Portis403 http://ift.tt/2D52x7x Futurology

Thursday, December 28, 2017

How long would it to take until a basic form of house-aide robot becomes available? Futurology

First of all, I know that cannot be a concrete answer, so I just want to hear speculations from people who knows more about robots that I do.

There are tasks that any humans (even stupid ones) can do easily, like opening door knobs, unplugging a power cord, turning off a light switch, fetching things (like, "Get some water from the refrigerator!"), or recognising that a person is experiencing a heart attack or lying down unconsciously. Almost any humans can easily use an automatic defibrillator after a few minutes of training.

If robots which can do such things become available at relatively affordable price (more or less the price of a car now), it could save thousands of lives (old people who live alone and need defibrillation) or make people's life better (people who have disabilities or just are lazy).

This year, "smart" assistants like Google Home and Amazon Echo have gain popularity. But they cannot move. Probably the next big thing is a moving assistant... like a robot that can do things I have described above. Will such robots ever be available within 30 years?



Submitted December 29, 2017 at 09:05AM by evolution2015 http://ift.tt/2lg2jjO Futurology

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Finns chill out quantum computers with qubit refrigerator to cut out errors Futurology

http://ift.tt/2vb3a8A

Submitted August 22, 2017 at 09:33PM by izumi3682 http://ift.tt/2vlPAyo Futurology

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Kurzweil's 2009 Looks Like Our 2019: Is this proof that Ray Kurzweil's predictions really do have a ten-year delay? Probably so, in fact! Futurology

From The Age of Spiritual Machines

People often say that Kurzweil makes predictions that come true a decade after he said they would.
This is turning out to be truer by the day. To prove this point, I want to compare his predictions.

Look at Kurzweil's 2009. Then read through Kurzweil's 2019. Compare it to our 2009 and 2019 (just get a little creative for the latter). You'll quickly begin to notice that his 2009 predictions were just flatout wrong for the real 2009 but are beginning to sound eerily familiar to our current world.

Kurzweil's 2009:

  • Most books will be read on screens rather than paper. [Though ebooks haven't yet overtaken print, the media— surprise surprise— is overselling the idea that ebooks have hit a ceiling]
  • Most text will be created using speech recognition technology. [I don't see this one as being likely. Speech recognition technology is great, but like motion controls, early proponents were too enamored with how futuristic it was to realize how impractical it is as well. Truth is, we're going to most likely skip from manual typing to BCIs]
  • Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways. [Kurzweil probably meant Level 4 autonomy, considering the addition of the line 'mostly on highways'. In which case, we're just waiting for the Tesla Model 3 to roll out. Elon Musk says that it's going to be Level 5, but the cold fact is that we're nowhere near that level of AI yet]
  • People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books. [Undoubtedly.]
  • Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation. [Smartwatches didn't take well, but Fitbit filled the niche surprisingly well.]
  • Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication. [We all know about Apple's C O U R A G E™, but also see what Tokyo is doing. /r/Cyberpunk is already sad because the webs of wires are going away.]
  • People can talk to their computer to give commands. [While speech recognition is not going to overtake manual typing, it is perfect for this sort of thing. More than confirmed, actually— even I was using this feature earlier today.]
  • Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used. [I was actually pleasantly surprised by how many AR glasses you can find on the internet, but so far, only Google Glass is widely known. And I hate Google Glass because it's so lackluster. HoloLens doesn't count because that headset is not a pair of eyeglasses.]
  • Computers can recognize their owner's face from a picture or video. [My goddamn refrigerator can recognize my face.]
  • Three-dimensional chips are commonly used. [They're being tested and used, but not commonly]
  • Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space. [There's still time]
  • A 1000 dollar PC can perform about a trillion calculations per second. [As of the latest chip generation, a $1k PC can get up to 9 TFLOPs, IIRC, so this was a little too conservative]
  • There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing. [Deep reinforcement learning doesn't work well without massively parallel neural networks, and I could be here all day talking about genetic algorithms]
  • Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans. [Human Brain Project began in 2013, and there have been plans on using brain scans to accelerate AI]
  • Autonomous nanoengineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls. [I know there was an autonomous microbot created a couple years back, but I have to check it out again. As for nanomachines, we still haven't done much with those breakthroughs back in 2014 where we created nanomotors and nanoengines.]

Kurzweil's 2019:

  • The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
  • The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
  • Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
  • People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
  • These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
  • People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
  • Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
  • Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
  • Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
  • Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
  • Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
  • Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
  • Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
  • Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
  • Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
  • Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
  • Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
  • Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
  • Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
  • All students have access to computers.
  • Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
  • Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
  • Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
  • Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
  • People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
  • Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
  • Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
  • Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
  • Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
  • People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
  • Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
  • Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
  • Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
  • The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
  • Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
  • Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
  • Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
  • Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
  • Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
  • While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
  • Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
  • Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
  • Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
  • The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
  • Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

Just for lulz, here's Kurzweil's 2029:

  • A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
  • The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains.
  • Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.
  • Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
  • The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.
  • Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence.
  • Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.
  • Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use.
  • Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
  • The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
  • The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real "robot rights" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a "human being."
  • Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.
  • Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth.
  • Reverse engineering of the human brain completed
  • Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
  • Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed in its rate of growth


Submitted August 06, 2017 at 09:25PM by Yuli-Ban http://ift.tt/2va4sDm Futurology

Friday, June 30, 2017

Past and Future Major Milestones Creating Significant Societal Advances Futurology

I'm 31, and in the past 2 years, have had 3 grandparents die, one just yesterday, and it has me thinking about the future and if we will ever have the life extending medical treatments from sci-fi. Mostly if I will be able to live forever, or at least significantly longer than current life expectancy.

This led me down a rabbit hole of considering what major milestones, technological or otherwise, that has significantly advanced society. By "advanced" I guess I mean being something that tended to improve overall quality of life and intelligence, on an individual and species level. Things that significantly move the average forward and things that move the leading edge further.

I am curious if anyone thinks I am missing something major, and additional predictions for the future.

3-10M BC: tools

1-2M BC: fire

200K BC: evolve to homosapiens

25-50K BC: clothes

100K BC: talking

11K BC: farming

10K: boats

4K BC: iron and metals works

3.5K BC: wheel

3.2K BC: reading/writing

1430: printing press

1712: steam engine

1804: trains

1850: refrigerators

1870: fuel combustion engine

1875: electricity

1876: invent phone

1886: invent cars

1903: airplanes

1906: Radio

1927: TV invented

1928: Penicillin

1939: Nuclear fission

1942: space capable rockets

1950: computers

1973: cell phones

1983: GPS

1990: World wide web internet

1993: Human genome project

2003: Smartphones

2010: Gene editing

2015: Reusable rocket technology

2016: Quantum computers catch on

2017: Virtual Reality goes mainstream

2017: Green energy outperforms fossil fuels

2020: Desalination tech goes mainstream

2020: Level 5 autonomous cars

2020: Male birth control

2020: Select private companies (GOOG, AMZN, BABA, TSLA, APPL, FB) monopolize economy

2022: Blockchain currencies supplant many national currencies

2022: Wireless distant charging takes over for all home personal needs

2025: Artificial intelligence overcomes most humans at specific skills

2025: Nuclear fusion

2025: Personal robot assistants go mainstream

2025: Flying personal transport vehicles go mainstream

2025: Hyperloopesque transportation goes mainstream

2025: Supersonic commercial air travel goes mainstream

2025: Space tourism goes mainstream

2027: Universal basic income goes mainstream

2030: First tourist space hotel goes into orbit

2030: World government consolidates into 5 main governments

2030: Asteroid mining begins

2030: Nanotechnologies go mainstream

2032: Last coal/electric plant closes

2033: Computer brain interface goes mainstream

2035: Anti aging treatments neutralize effects of aging

2035: First Mars colonists

2035: First Moon colonists

2035: Mars terraforming begins

2035: World hunger solved, no more third world countries

2035: Genetically modified humans, animals, food is mainstream

2035: First male born human carries a child to birth

2040: Humans regularly grown in artificial wombs

2040: Human organs, bones and other parts grown in lab and 3D printed

2040: Bionic implementation goes mainstream

2040: Singularity

2042: Population hits 10B

2045: Driving is banned

2045: Average life expectancy exceeds 100

2045: Hypersonic travel is extremely common place

2050: Space elevators

2050: Polar caps totally melted

2050: Animal extinction levels are skyrocketing

2050: Mass flood displaces 100s of Millions

2060: Average life expectancy advancing faster than passage of time

2075: Several orbiting space hotels

2080: First launch loop for space travel

2100: First earth orbital ring

2100: 1M+ Mars residents

2125: Less than 5% practice an existing religion

2150: Colonies on multiple goldilock planets

2150: Mars terraformation makes human hospitable atmosphere, warmth, oceans, plants, animals

2150: Human forced hybernation invented

2150: Human reanimation of cryogenically frozen humans

2175: First proof of life outside earth

2175: Massive Metros take up 75% of China and India

2200: Intelligent alien life identified

2300: Space flight propulsion at near light speed velocity

2500: Anti-gravity machines

2500: Wormholes manipulated

2500: Humans evolving differently on different planets creating further human speciation

What am I missing? What do I have wrong? It's crazy to think what exponential growth really looks like once it gets to this point. Similarly crazy to think about how far we've advanced in the past 100 years. The graph tracking human advancement is basically pointing straight up at this point.



Submitted July 01, 2017 at 11:31AM by lawanddisorder216 http://ift.tt/2sbRyAM Futurology

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Friday, May 12, 2017

Saturday, February 4, 2017

Space Development may be the key to the AI / Universal Basic Income question, creating a post-scarcity economy Futurology

A few years ago, an economist predicted that space development could improve the standard of living of everyone on Earth by a factor of 10. Without going into huge detail, this is a plausible scenario. Space has already radically improved life with anti-nuclear weapon spy satellites, weather monitoring, crop assessment, GPS, and materials science among other things.

UBI is essentially a primitive first step toward a post-scarcity economy, evolving from the present day ad hoc methods such as welfare, unemployment insurance, disability, and Social Security.

The biggest impediments to successful UBI are probably social/psychological but I will pass over that and discuss resources. If that economic improvement of space is true, and I think it is, then that is a classic "rising tide lifts all boats" scenario.

Imagine a 15% global tax on space resources brought back to Earth, to be used to fund UBI and other things. That by itself may be sufficient. But other benefits apply as well, such as vastly improved resources.

The platinum-gold group of metals are generally an example. These metals all have major applications in industry but are too expensive for most such applications. But imagine if we could afford to make high tension power lines out of silver, reducing power losses to resistance, and put catalytic converters on every fossil fuel plant and large ship - or replace them all with new reactor technologies or solver/gold based batteries and solar.

The range of ultra high tech products from electronics to biotech that will only be possible to make in the microgravity and vacuum of space is presently unknown, but promise to change life more than all human progress through history.

Without space, UBI inherently involves somewhat if a zero sum game, taking money / resources from some to give to others. But space development could change that equation so that everyone no matter how well off will be dramatically better off, and the so-called "socialism of the rich" will become the norm. (That term can be seen as "I don't mind if you take food from my refrigerator because there is so much I won't even notice.")

[edit] autocorrect (f-ing iPad!) and a couple of tweaks,



Submitted February 05, 2017 at 07:05AM by gar37bic http://ift.tt/2kAMfuc Futurology

Monday, December 26, 2016

Post-Scarcity Society and its Malcontents Futurology

Does a post-scarcity society threaten the the rich and powerful, and will they try to stop it from occurring by political means? This possibility occurred to me when I read this quote from Goldstein's book in "1984" and call it the "Theory and Practice of Oligarchic Collectivism":

"But it was also clear that an all-round increase in wealth threatened the destruction — indeed, in some sense was the destruction — of a hierarchical society. In a world in which everyone worked short hours, had enough to eat, lived in a house with a bathroom and a refrigerator, and possessed a motor-car or even an aeroplane, the most obvious and perhaps the most important form of inequality would already have disappeared. If it once became general, wealth would confer no distinction. It was possible, no doubt, to imagine a society in which WEALTH, in the sense of personal possessions and luxuries, should be evenly distributed, while POWER remained in the hands of a small privileged caste. But in practice such a society could not long remain stable. For if leisure and security were enjoyed by all alike, the great mass of human beings who are normally stupefied by poverty would become literate and would learn to think for themselves; and when once they had done this, they would sooner or later realize that the privileged minority had no function, and they would sweep it away. In the long run, a hierarchical society was only possible on a basis of poverty and ignorance."

Sound familiar?



Submitted December 26, 2016 at 04:35PM by defcon1959 http://ift.tt/2hYUfTR Futurology

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

What is the consumer value proposition of the internet of things? Futurology

We already have an internet of modern cars. I drive an ancient car, and it still gets me where I want to go-- even if I have to know where I'm going. What is the value I get, as a consumer, from having my TV, refrigerator, oven, and home lighting connected to the internet? I can already set my coffeemaker to start when I want. I understand the surveillance advantage, certainly. But someone has to pay for all this, and "they" expect that to be me. Ok...But what do I stand to gain from an internet of things?



Submitted July 20, 2016 at 02:41PM by nononocomeonwtf http://ift.tt/29UHlBK Futurology

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Engineers Develop the Refrigerator of the Future Futurology

http://ift.tt/1Qp3iDT

Submitted February 09, 2016 at 06:56PM by paxtana http://ift.tt/1Q6MozI Futurology

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Engineers develop the refrigerator of the future Futurology

http://ift.tt/1KnvXwz

Submitted February 02, 2016 at 08:05PM by stormforce7916 http://ift.tt/1o2qod2 Futurology