Kurzweil's 2009 Looks Like Our 2019: Is this proof that Ray Kurzweil's predictions really do have a ten-year delay? Probably so, in fact! Futurology

From The Age of Spiritual Machines

People often say that Kurzweil makes predictions that come true a decade after he said they would.
This is turning out to be truer by the day. To prove this point, I want to compare his predictions.

Look at Kurzweil's 2009. Then read through Kurzweil's 2019. Compare it to our 2009 and 2019 (just get a little creative for the latter). You'll quickly begin to notice that his 2009 predictions were just flatout wrong for the real 2009 but are beginning to sound eerily familiar to our current world.

Kurzweil's 2009:

• Most books will be read on screens rather than paper. [Though ebooks haven't yet overtaken print, the media— surprise surprise— is overselling the idea that ebooks have hit a ceiling]
• Most text will be created using speech recognition technology. [I don't see this one as being likely. Speech recognition technology is great, but like motion controls, early proponents were too enamored with how futuristic it was to realize how impractical it is as well. Truth is, we're going to most likely skip from manual typing to BCIs]
• Intelligent roads and driverless cars will be in use, mostly on highways. [Kurzweil probably meant Level 4 autonomy, considering the addition of the line 'mostly on highways'. In which case, we're just waiting for the Tesla Model 3 to roll out. Elon Musk says that it's going to be Level 5, but the cold fact is that we're nowhere near that level of AI yet]
• People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books. [Undoubtedly.]
• Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation. [Smartwatches didn't take well, but Fitbit filled the niche surprisingly well.]
• Cables are disappearing. Computer peripheries use wireless communication. [We all know about Apple's C O U R A G E™, but also see what Tokyo is doing. /r/Cyberpunk is already sad because the webs of wires are going away.]
• People can talk to their computer to give commands. [While speech recognition is not going to overtake manual typing, it is perfect for this sort of thing. More than confirmed, actually— even I was using this feature earlier today.]
• Computer displays built into eyeglasses for augmented reality are used. [I was actually pleasantly surprised by how many AR glasses you can find on the internet, but so far, only Google Glass is widely known. And I hate Google Glass because it's so lackluster. HoloLens doesn't count because that headset is not a pair of eyeglasses.]
• Computers can recognize their owner's face from a picture or video. [My goddamn refrigerator can recognize my face.]
• Three-dimensional chips are commonly used. [They're being tested and used, but not commonly]
• Sound producing speakers are being replaced with very small chip-based devices that can place high resolution sound anywhere in three-dimensional space. [There's still time]
• A 1000 dollar PC can perform about a trillion calculations per second. [As of the latest chip generation, a $1k PC can get up to 9 TFLOPs, IIRC, so this was a little too conservative]
• There is increasing interest in massively parallel neural nets, genetic algorithms and other forms of "chaotic" or complexity theory computing. [Deep reinforcement learning doesn't work well without massively parallel neural networks, and I could be here all day talking about genetic algorithms]
• Research has been initiated on reverse engineering the brain through both destructive and non-invasive scans. [Human Brain Project began in 2013, and there have been plans on using brain scans to accelerate AI]
• Autonomous nanoengineered machines have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls. [I know there was an autonomous microbot created a couple years back, but I have to check it out again. As for nanomachines, we still haven't done much with those breakthroughs back in 2014 where we created nanomotors and nanoengines.]

Kurzweil's 2019:

• The computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device (in 1999 dollars) is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain (20 quadrillion calculations per second).
• The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race.
• Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.).
• People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
• These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. First, they can project "heads-up-displays" (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the environment regardless of the user's perspective or orientation. Second, virtual objects or people could be rendered in fixed locations by the glasses, so when the user's eyes look elsewhere, the objects appear to stay in their places. Third, the devices could block out the "real" world entirely and fully immerse the user in a virtual reality environment.
• People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. Dealing with computers thus becomes more and more like dealing with a human being.
• Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
• Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
• Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
• Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
• Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
• Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
• Destructive scans of the brain and noninvasive brain scans have allowed scientists to understand the brain much better. The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets.
• Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
• Nanotechnology is more capable and is in use for specialized applications, yet it has not yet made it into the mainstream. "Nanoengineered machines" begin to be used in manufacturing.
• Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly.
• Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete.
• Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. These assistants are often not physically present, and help students remotely.
• Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers.
• All students have access to computers.
• Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge.
• Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities.
• Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful.
• Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cochlear and other implants are also widely used.
• People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computer-controlled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
• Computers are also found inside of some humans in the form of cybernetic implants. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (i.e. - Retinal implants allow the blind to see and spinal implants coupled with mechanical legs allow the paralyzed to walk).
• Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations.
• Effective language technologies (natural language processing, speech recognition, speech synthesis) exist
• Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers.
• People are able to wirelessly access the Internet at all times from almost anywhere
• Devices that deliver sensations to the skin surface of their users (i.e.--tight body suits and gloves) are also sometimes used in virtual reality to complete the experience. "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality, or in which a human can have sex with a "simulated" partner that only exists on a computer—becomes a reality.
• Just as visual- and auditory virtual reality have come of age, haptic technology has fully matured and is completely convincing, yet requires the user to enter a V.R. booth. It is commonly used for computer sex and remote medical examinations. It is the preferred sexual medium since it is safe and enhances the experience.
• Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
• The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers, or between a human's virtual personal assistant and a simulated retailer.
• Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable.
• Computers do most of the vehicle driving—-humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control whenever the human drives recklessly. As a result, there are very few transportation accidents.
• Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate.
• Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. They are also primarily computer-controlled.
• Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights.
• While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test.
• Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing.
• Interaction with virtual personalities becomes a primary interface
• Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes.
• The basic needs of the underclass are met. (Not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries)
• Virtual artists—creative computers capable of making their own art and music—emerge in all fields of the arts.

Just for lulz, here's Kurzweil's 2029:

• A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
• The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains.
• Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.
• Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.
• The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.
• Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence.
• Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers "know" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.
• Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use.
• Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human.
• The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want.
• The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real "robot rights" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a "human being."
• Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas.
• Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth.
• Reverse engineering of the human brain completed
• Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
• Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed in its rate of growth

Submitted August 06, 2017 at 09:25PM by Yuli-Ban http://ift.tt/2va4sDm Futurology