I haven't done any (major) future forecasting in a while, so thought I would do it again. Some of the themes in the text below overlap with ones I've written about before; and here I will try to integrate the technologies into a complete vision. Bear in mind that I haven't thought this through very carefully; if I were forecasting for a firm (if I weren't a researcher), I would spend a lot more effort think about plausibility -- what I'm about to write is only "for fun":
A typical day for a yuppie
You awake to music; your spouse lying next to you can't hear it from the other side of the bed, so stays asleep. Your home computer network knows that you have some important meetings in the morning; and so decided to wake you a little early (you agreed to this yesterday). Quietly, so as not to wake your spouse, you walk to the bathroom to brush your teeth and to shower.
Once inside, you close the door, and then a disembodied voice says, "Would you like to hear the news?" (the computer knew to wait until you were in the bathroom, so as not to wake your spouse) After agreeing, the voice comes back with a summary -- generated completely automatically from various sources -- of the major stories of the day. One item is about massive riots in Los Angeles over technological unemployment; 10 people were killed in confrontations with police.
The voice returns, "Would you like me to make some breakfast?" You agree; and, just then, a kitchen robot starts to put on the coffee; opens the refrigerator to retrieve ingredients; by the time you finish brushing and showering, a full breakfast has been prepared, and carefully laid out on the kitchen table -- veggie-eggs, toast, soysage, coffee, orange juice and water.
You sit down to eat breakfast, and as you do so, you put on a pair of what looks to be "Rock Star" glasses (like the Emporio Armani glasses that Bono of U2 wears); they are, in fact, augmented reality glasses with advanced light field technology, to produce images in your field of view that look virtually indistinguishable from real, solid objects. You see, in front of you, a female avatar called Viv -- now the disembodied voice has a voice. Viv says to you, "It looks like you are out of veggie-eggs. Would you like me to order some for you?" You agree, and then Viv contacts Amazon to send you the veggie eggs. Before you say goodbye to your spouse, who is now up and about, and before you walk out the door -- 20 minutes later -- Viv tells you that an Amazon drone had just delivered the package to your front door. On your way out, you pick up the package, hand it to the kitchen robot; and then the robot puts it away in the refrigerator.
You hop in your driverless car (you are one of the lucky few to own one in your neighborhood), and it already knows where you want to be; and it drives you there, flawlessly. You get out, and your car parks itself.
All during your day -- the meetings and other work -- you wear a tiny peel-off circular stamp (a dime for a dozen) on the lapel of your coat. Small it may be, but it contains an ultra high-resolution webcam and sound recording system, that streams your day to DropCam for later analysis, in case you take off your glasses (which can stream and store the contents of your day).
As you read over some reports, the numbers you see don't look right, so you ask Viv, "Do these numbers look right to you?" Viv understands you are talking about the document in front of you, and that you want to know how plausible the numerical estimates are. Using machine reading algorithms she converts the document into a formal representation; and then looks for inconsistencies between the data and her vast knowledge graph and data supplied by various services she is connected to. A fraction of a second later she returns, "The average housing prices are at the lower range of the estimates I have been able to find." You say, "Show me those estimates." Ten glowing document icons pop into your field of view. You quickly point at the first one, and it opens to the size of a computer screen, floating in mid-air, and shows you Viv's first source.
The rest of the day amounts to basically oking the work of various computer algorithms. You start to wonder how long the world can go on the way it has -- "How long until they notice that I'm not really needed anymore, that the computers are more accurate at my job than I'll ever be?"
Changes to the landscape
Malls were dying even before 2020; and, now, many of the major discount malls are gone, erased from existence -- it's simply cheaper to order online and have it delivered by drone. And if you want to see what the product is actually like, AR glasses and texture synthesis can give you all information you need. People don't make sizing errors with clothing anymore.
Upscale malls are still in business; but they don't consume as much land space as the big malls of decades passed.
Building robots are creeping in to construction crew work. Most of job still can't be fully automated; but robots can now carry beams, bolts, nails, tools, and other things to the places on a building site where they are needed, and they can follow orders from crew along the lines of, "Bolt this I-beam to that joint over there." It's beginning to look like any day now (or maybe a few years) robots will be able to build entire buildings, 100% autonomously.
Poor people are starting to move away from major cities, as more and more services are no longer needed; and, as always, housing prices are cheaper away from major metropolitan areas. These days, basic medical conditions can be quickly and easily diagnosed by medical assistant AI's; and new laws enable them to write prescriptions for basic medicines, like antibiotics and painkillers. And, as far as access to culture, the Metaverse is easy to access from AR/VR glasses; and the price of access (and the glasses) is affordable to all but the most destitute. What jobs are left can either be performed remotely, or through telepresence.
Litterbots patrol some of the major streets, looking for and picking up trash. The streets have never looked so clean!
Cameras are everywhere; though, by law, they can't be concealed.
Since about 2020, computers have been able to accurately summarize the contents of video -- "understand" what they are seeing, in a sense -- and that has meant that it has become harder and harder for criminals to hide. Muggers know better than to rob people on major cities, as their actions would be identified in a fraction of a second. But what's to steal, anyways? The glasses will only work for their user; fewer and fewer people carry cash or credit or debit cards anymore (payments can be done instantly online -- and if you lose your glasses, the stores can easily recognize you with facial and biometric identification, if you have your account set up properly); driver's licenses and other ID is not needed.
Roads and bridges looks well-maintained, following a massive infrastructure spending bill (which really was a "jobs bill").
Large swaths of farmland are completely uninhabited. Where before, 10 years ago, migrant workers would pick fruits and vegetables starting at the break of dawn; now some of these farms employ robots to do almost everything -- from planting to delivery; some farms even use robots to load fruits and vegetables onto driverless truckes, that then ship them to distribution centers.
A curious side-effect of the farm automation is that fewer and fewer GMO crops are needed, as an army of robots can quickly and cheaply remove weeds and kill insects (a quadcopter flies overhead and zaps insects with a laser).
To be continued...
Submitted April 02, 2015 at 09:07AM by starspawn0 http://ift.tt/1xBncsh thisisthewayitwillbe
